The major stock market averages finished mixed last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average performed the worst, falling 1.8% to 43,828 (and it has now declined 7 days in a row). The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped .6% to 6,051. The NASDAQ Composite was the winner for the week, surpassing 20,000 for the first time ever, and finishing the week up .3% to 19,927. The NASDAQ has now risen four consecutive weeks.
Stocks have consistently notched new all-time highs throughout 2024, based largely on mega cap technology companies and optimism over Artificial Intelligence, along with a shift in monetary policy and Federal Reserve rate cuts. More recently, the stock market also got a boost from the presidential election, with investors expecting more favorable business/market/tax policies.
Looking to the week ahead, we’ll get a notable and interesting handful of earnings reports, with Nike, Micron Technology and FedEx, which is somewhat of a bellwether for the economy, all scheduled to announce results. The main event of the week, however, is the Federal Reserve policy meeting on interest rates.
The probability is currently 97% the Fed will cut interest rates by ¼ percentage point at the conclusion of their meeting on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch. Clearly, the market is expecting that ¼ point rate cut. The uncertainty and what could move the market is what comes next for the Fed. Investors have reduced expectations for the magnitude and pace of interest rate cuts in 2025 due to inflation still being above the Fed’s long-term target. Should commentary by Fed Chair Powell reduce rate cut expectations even further, that could be a headwind for the stock market and may create volatility.
Interest rates are a key variable in stock market valuations and higher interest rates make stocks less attractive. After watching the Federal Reserve and their interest rate decision/guidance this week and getting through that, investors will begin focusing more on whether there will be a Santa Claus Rally!
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All the best – Southport Station Financial Management, LLC